Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Vacherot (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfc1423758bd3e8f90497bc3d7da7d927f72b9f10a627594fff0dd1bcaad8d75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cerundoloof Vacherot, Cerundolo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Vacherot | 49c | 2,004$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.37 | 600 | 53.8%323 W · 277 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Cerundolo | 54c | 1,710$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.24 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cerundolo | 54c | 1,632$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.35 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Vacherot | 52c | 802.96$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.74 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Vacherot | 50c | 776.93$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.04 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Cerundolo | 60c | 686.44$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.99 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…9949backed Vacherot | 47c | 491.92$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.2 | 465 | 53.8%250 W · 215 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked Cerundolo | 58c | 420.69$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 848 | 57.4%487 W · 361 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cerundolo | 48c | 247.87$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.92 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9209…b4d5backed Vacherot | 47c | 237.31$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.54 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Cerundolo | 48c | 193.76$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.76 | 245 | 46.5%114 W · 131 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8b…88cbbacked Vacherot | 48c | 135.45$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 100 | 65%65 W · 35 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f15…650dbacked Cerundolo | 58c | 84.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 157 | 62.4%98 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Cerundolo | 45c | 72.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95fc…10f6backed Cerundolo | 54c | 68.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcc…45f6backed Vacherot | 49c | 61.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -10.4wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -29%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd35e…a1e8backed Vacherot | 47c | 59.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked Vacherot | 55c | 53.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 485 | 52.4%254 W · 231 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed Cerundolo | 54c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 124 | 47.6%59 W · 65 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb882…fcabbacked Cerundolo | 51c | 29.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…406dbacked Cerundolo | 55c | 21.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Cerundolo | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Vacherot (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5)this page
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Juan Manuel CerundoloValentin Vacherot won
- Set 1 Winner: Vacherot vs CerundoloCerundolo won
- Vacherot vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Vacherot vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Vacherot vs. Cerundolo: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Valentin Vacherot vs. Juan Manuel Cerundolo: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.