South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-11-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcffb4b9aa1e32a9157478a492318d3ac321b5167e4ff88085436402edd118737
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3151…0977backed No | 56c | 20,299$11,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,931.6 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 44c | 20,000$8,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,800 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 58c | 12,955$7,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,441.12 | 63 | 63.5%40 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 42c | 10,222$4,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,293.17 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 42c | 1,915$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.62 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 62c | 1,411$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.5 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 41c | 783$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.31 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 37c | 732.12$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.38 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 42c | 705.4$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.06 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 42c | 227$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.34 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked No | 58c | 199.85$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.04 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 42c | 153.73$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.21 | 162 | 34.6%56 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Yes | 38c | 119.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6471backed Yes | 43c | 117.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 35c | 115.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…7ed4backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…3e9fbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…0730backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 78c | 61.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x154c…658ebacked Yes | 45c | 58.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed No | 55c | 58.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa83…537bbacked No | 58c | 52.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed No | 56c | 51.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.3wins | +0.39per pick | 52cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 58c | 51.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…274ebacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b0…b71fbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x192f…352bbacked Yes | 41c | 49.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fa…1cf2backed Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked No | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc7…19e6backed Yes | 42c | 29.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…40d6backed No | 58c | 20.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-11-09?this page
- Will EC Vitória vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw?Yes won
- Will EC Vitória win on 2025-11-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.