NHL · resolved market
KHL: Spartak Moscow vs. Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd084641e981bce204f35404c1b010c864cc40a1c6b65b50cd8e8b51446c3dfc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Neftekhimik Nizhnekamskof Spartak Moscow, Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,998 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Spartak Moscow | 63c | 726.76$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.5 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237e…a5f0backed Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk | 37c | 542.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.74 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29b1…f737backed Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk | 36c | 424.36$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.51 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Spartak Moscow | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Spartak Moscow | 37c | 82.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk | 38c | 59.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…5403backed Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk | 34c | 46.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa049…4314backed Spartak Moscow | 64c | 42.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Spartak Moscow | 65c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4a…6570backed Spartak Moscow | 67c | 37.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Spartak Moscow | 69c | 34.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6912…2aabbacked Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk | 35c | 34.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…bcabbacked Spartak Moscow | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 54cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Spartak Moscow | 65c | 26.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Spartak Moscow | 65c | 25.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 181 | 43.1%78 W · 103 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f76…e24cbacked Spartak Moscow | 65c | 16.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.