Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Minnesota vs. USC
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0d9229ff8ac849d73e5ce04e08cd22c3cd50b2b08546c5fd045b136e35bb077
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesotaof Minnesota, USC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12a0…9a02backed USC | 50c | 79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…82e7backed Minnesota | 50c | 72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d8…926dbacked USC | 50c | 71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…0287backed Minnesota | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9dd…412ebacked Minnesota | 50c | 69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…ab9fbacked USC | 50c | 68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e1…3bc9backed Minnesota | 25c | 61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebc8…00f1backed Minnesota | 50c | 57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9852…b795backed USC | 50c | 52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf534…faafbacked Minnesota | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…a2a6backed USC | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…b7fabacked USC | 77c | 46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f03…6968backed Minnesota | 23c | 45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa183…0d38backed Minnesota | 23c | 44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2963…6fd5backed USC | 75c | 42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked USC | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8e…5dc3backed USC | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93d6…afb7backed USC | 75c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.