Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
UMBC vs. Bryant
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd110267cf0845f905244d7362ae9c4d280a7436e5a00e268cff4ef8af8c8f7b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bryantof UMBC, Bryant
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Bryant | 46c | 116.77$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.53 | 284 | 45.1%128 W · 156 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed UMBC | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe88c…34a0backed UMBC | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5748…c1d8backed UMBC | 35c | 52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…a949backed UMBC | 50c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc19…c0bdbacked UMBC | 35c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56dd…4de4backed UMBC | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…63e2backed Bryant | 65c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…c595backed Bryant | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Bryant | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…64a6backed Bryant | 65c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd639…b62fbacked Bryant | 50c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fa…0525backed UMBC | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e6…3728backed Bryant | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f9…f8ebbacked Bryant | 65c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…8216backed Bryant | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95e3…be0cbacked Bryant | 65c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb37…8b65backed Bryant | 65c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93d6…afb7backed Bryant | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…ba86backed Bryant | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xded8…1ca9backed Bryant | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf396…9522backed Bryant | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbec6…423cbacked Bryant | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.