TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Montana vs. Sacramento State

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Montanaof Montana, Sacramento State
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$555
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$555

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $555 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa827…735fbacked Sacramento State22c102$22 inLost-$22.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ad6…f6b6backed Sacramento State22c73$16 inLost-$16.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b60…6e72backed Sacramento State22c70$15 inLost-$15.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc685…d042backed Sacramento State23c62$14 inLost-$14.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick37cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdefc…e8cabacked Montana78c56$44 inWon+$12.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72fe…e2cebacked Montana79c45$36 inWon+$9.455570.9%39 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4afc…4034backed Montana77c23$18 inWon+$5.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31bd…1f4fbacked Montana78c23$18 inWon+$5.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ea…37a6backed Montana78c23$18 inWon+$5.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf0d…7f47backed Montana78c23$18 inWon+$5.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc623…7c58backed Montana78c22$17 inWon+$4.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8096…0bc3backed Montana78c22$17 inWon+$4.84250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9594…8f51backed Montana78c21$16 inWon+$4.62250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe74c…5976backed Montana78c21$16 inWon+$4.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57eb…c793backed Montana78c20$16 inWon+$4.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick64cpaid+66.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d8f…7414backed Montana77c20$15 inWon+$4.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedda…2d4abacked Montana78c20$16 inWon+$4.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c06…2192backed Montana77c19$15 inWon+$4.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98f7…3ccbbacked Montana78c18$14 inWon+$3.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x739e…e844backed Montana78c15$12 inWon+$3.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a41…4a65backed Montana78c14$11 inWon+$3.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.