Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2fd4fbfbfa4e5d8062975fe67168a2f4ac882e08d0463791d183eb27419f0b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,372
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,372 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 2c | 5,577$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…b1b1backed Yes | 1c | 4,261$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4098…ab59backed Yes | 2c | 3,573$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 6c | 245.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 18c | 189.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 34c | 168.94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…f8efbacked Yes | 20c | 168$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 78c | 151.98$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x003a…485cbacked Yes | 44c | 141.51$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 27c | 105.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 100.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 26c | 92.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf038…e718backed No | 78c | 67.58$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 72c | 61.54$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 20c | 57.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 35c | 52.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 23c | 47.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 68c | 46.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 43.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 75c | 41.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e29…4704backed No | 64c | 38.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed No | 78c | 36.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 30.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 29.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 80c | 28.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 60c | 27.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 70c | 25.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a4…d77abacked No | 79c | 18.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked No | 72c | 18.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 66c | 18.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 75c | 15.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed No | 70c | 15.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 78c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 53°F or below on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 72°F or higher on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on April 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.