Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Arkansas State vs. Louisiana
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3b379d8fd8f457f59f2ce55470c65e8383ba034e120ca66041c9f320e997015
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arkansas Stateof Arkansas State, Louisiana
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x172a…229ebacked Louisiana | 21c | 559$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x801b…8a51backed Arkansas State | 79c | 493$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.53 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85f9…95d1backed Louisiana | 21c | 373$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1335…99e2backed Louisiana | 21c | 196$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb25…f9d8backed Louisiana | 21c | 144$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…5c08backed Arkansas State | 79c | 133$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…3120backed Arkansas State | 79c | 133$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1352…5d11backed Arkansas State | 79c | 95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +133.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x465a…e34fbacked Arkansas State | 79c | 93$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb0…73edbacked Louisiana | 15c | 88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496e…26afbacked Arkansas State | 79c | 88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf534…faafbacked Arkansas State | 79c | 85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a13…6bc3backed Louisiana | 21c | 81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c11…a1dfbacked Louisiana | 21c | 57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…b4f6backed Louisiana | 21c | 56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…79b6backed Arkansas State | 79c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dca…b7f1backed Arkansas State | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…958ebacked Arkansas State | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +85%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd97…ea8bbacked Arkansas State | 79c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x046e…200fbacked Arkansas State | 79c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…6ed5backed Arkansas State | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x436c…b1adbacked Arkansas State | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee82…bf56backed Arkansas State | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…0606backed Arkansas State | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff7…75b1backed Arkansas State | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5aa…2bf6backed Arkansas State | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a1…ecc7backed Arkansas State | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4b…d145backed Arkansas State | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85fc…b6ffbacked Arkansas State | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f23…913ebacked Arkansas State | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…e348backed Arkansas State | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea4…0240backed Arkansas State | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db9…a395backed Arkansas State | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffcf…1f63backed Arkansas State | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4688…26b4backed Arkansas State | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8b…ca1fbacked Arkansas State | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…30a7backed Arkansas State | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…2bf3backed Arkansas State | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.