Fifa International · resolved market
Will Switzerland beat USA?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4d2fb858727d465a31083610948bb26161b640eff6dcb5c78ea1b9c826e83ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 58c | 1,214$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.59 | 470 | 32.8%154 W · 316 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5896…37b1backed No | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x028a…dc8fbacked Yes | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5907…6a13backed No | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0dc…247dbacked Yes | 41c | 930$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 60c | 898.2$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.54 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Yes | 42c | 787.02$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.47 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.12 | 274 | 34.3%94 W · 180 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd386…1887backed Yes | 43c | 234.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 102 | 63.7%65 W · 37 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 57c | 200.01$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.01 | 215 | 42.8%92 W · 123 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 60c | 167.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Yes | 58c | 102$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 330 | 59.1%195 W · 135 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46d4…3602backed Yes | 42c | 86.71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 33c | 82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc366…6926backed Yes | 41c | 65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2d…0b7abacked Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed No | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x817a…0a90backed Yes | 43c | 35.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 298 | 46%137 W · 161 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed No | 60c | 29.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Switzerland beat USA?this page
- Will USA beat Switzerland?No won
- Will USA vs. Switzerland end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.