Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd55163361c1cdd6b20d60d1c138ddb6e8591b4c5df4f33fe37342f8cd74ccbf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,589
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,589 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 79c | 1,097$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.05 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4e…d0c6backed Yes | 15c | 723.14$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.08 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 18c | 471.71$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.74 | 1,322 | 24%317 W · 1,005 L | -64.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 12c | 220$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 321 | 35.2%113 W · 208 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 971 | 40.3%391 W · 580 L | -73.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 122 | 43.4%53 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on August 28?this page
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on August 28?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on August 28?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on August 28?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.