Tennis · resolved market
ITF Taipei: Mio Mushika vs Yuki Naito
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5a5b8c3e891fe118acb9ba7da9e6555a8a382d340a344b48ebca1db24f9e1ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yuki Naitoof Mio Mushika, Yuki Naito
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Mio Mushika | 15c | 3,741$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.67 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Mio Mushika | 20c | 793.17$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Mio Mushika | 16c | 654.18$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.44 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Mio Mushika | 14c | 399.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Mio Mushika | 20c | 302.62$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Mio Mushika | 16c | 175.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad5…ccdebacked Mio Mushika | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 550 | 32.7%180 W · 370 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Mio Mushika | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Yuki Naito | 80c | 117.1$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 376 | 45.7%172 W · 204 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d2…4a24backed Mio Mushika | 20c | 80.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 529 | 10%53 W · 476 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yuki Naito | 77c | 72.39$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd82…6a10backed Yuki Naito | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 285 | 57.9%165 W · 120 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Yuki Naito | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 490 | 56.9%279 W · 211 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4628…d573backed Yuki Naito | 77c | 42.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ea…42e8backed Yuki Naito | 79c | 41.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 898 | 59.7%536 W · 362 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Yuki Naito | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9dd…13a2backed Yuki Naito | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Yuki Naito | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 627 | 27.3%171 W · 456 L | -15.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba1a…85febacked Yuki Naito | 78c | 31.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 726 | 51.8%376 W · 350 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yuki Naito | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Yuki Naito | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.