Europa Conference League · resolved market
SC Freiburg leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd670a98b68655c749a0b35968db9b2d0bc8a8d56d1e909fb5478dcc1c4f8ee82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd242…7be8backed Yes | 25c | 1,581$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 75c | 467$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.75 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 22c | 200.84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 75c | 193.47$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 73c | 185.19$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 212 | 43.9%93 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 74c | 181$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf9…9530backed Yes | 27c | 177.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 74c | 168$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 74c | 168$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 74c | 163.88$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a16…5f47backed No | 77c | 103.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…43debacked No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecda…6f0abacked Yes | 21c | 78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88c7…febcbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Freiburg leading at halftime?this page
- SC Braga leading at halftime?No won
- SC Braga vs. SC Freiburg: Draw at halftime?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.