World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7873cc9e28e8d00fe613b1ee5c31729e65b8a61e5a58229207e5c50796b66e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 65c | 501.05$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.41 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 30c | 401.01$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.3 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…9e29backed No | 74c | 273.84$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 191.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 471 | 37.6%177 W · 294 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 125.89$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 108 | 68.5%74 W · 34 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 120.14$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 309 | 44%136 W · 173 L | -23.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 116.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 190 | 45.3%86 W · 104 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 33c | 93.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 16c | 84.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 36c | 80.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 73c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 79.36$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 189 | 56.6%107 W · 82 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 64.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 214 | 64%137 W · 77 L | +15.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 33c | 59.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 58.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 436 | 49.5%216 W · 220 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 119 | 42%50 W · 69 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 34c | 47.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 28c | 46.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dd…4226backed No | 66c | 45.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 36.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 463 | 29.4%136 W · 327 L | -69.9wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x40be…e067backed Yes | 51c | 35.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 57c | 34.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 62c | 32.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 34c | 31.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on August 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.