Europa Conference League · resolved market
RC Celta de Vigo vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7b04aa2e580f4023b41332fec086197d3e7b548e8bb8e283a62a1ac3c6bdb89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,327
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,327 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Under | 49c | 3,066$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 51c | 2,418$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,184.76 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 415.02$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.25 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 44c | 342.86$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.86 | 92 | 27.2%25 W · 67 L | -11.8wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -43%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Over | 56c | 325$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 44c | 299.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 103 | 32%33 W · 70 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…f625backed Under | 42c | 199.98$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.99 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…7650backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over | 56c | 177.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.46 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…06b0backed Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3279…a922backed Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 57c | 47.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…142abacked Over | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6adb…fac7backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-0.5)RC Celta de Vigo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.