Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $435-$440 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7f323cc5e9a807c9b7698610653f9c8e72a2be2b624a5012450ba5e890cab32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,448
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2402…48adbacked Yes | 2c | 3,162$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,098.51 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +4.4wins | +0.63per pick | 9cpaid | +1,275.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e8…cc63backed Yes | 12c | 259.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +229.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd385…25eebacked Yes | 12c | 254.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +762.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffec…af34backed Yes | 12c | 215.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +747.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 37c | 215$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.01 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…b7d1backed Yes | 12c | 182.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +187.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35a9…3fdabacked Yes | 12c | 164.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +956%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 168 | 44.6%75 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…91d1backed No | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $435-$440 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $415-$420 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $420-$425 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $430-$435 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $440-$445 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $450-$455 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at <$415 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at >$460 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.