Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Kansas vs. Houston
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd84a21ad6becdf342a3a87e31f794352fbeff246c30cd09d652636959e6d82c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houstonof Kansas, Houston
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x480d…f219backed Kansas | 26c | 990$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.4 | 391 | 44.5%174 W · 217 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed Kansas | 19c | 847.11$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.95 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Houston | 77c | 786.9$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.66 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Kansas | 13c | 308.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Houston | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34f6…fa3bbacked Kansas | 18c | 91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Kansas | 21c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Houston | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 205 | 48.8%100 W · 105 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd24f…3f60backed Kansas | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa979…381dbacked Kansas | 18c | 73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7352…66a8backed Kansas | 20c | 67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Kansas | 19c | 64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a78…3023backed Houston | 79c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66db…459cbacked Houston | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bef…64aebacked Houston | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +75%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5a…97c4backed Houston | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.