Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda6d04e87c980c9130300daab7c4b0b9bcdc81f408d45f86ba9789bd130fb66f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,947
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 425.79$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 25c | 410.93$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.35 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 75c | 286.83$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.26 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 19c | 182.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 31c | 114.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 25c | 111$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 110.51$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 78.57$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 68c | 76.56$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 76c | 64.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 75c | 62.61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 44c | 47.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 67c | 38.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…91f8backed No | 76c | 32.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 27.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b7…b30abacked No | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 24.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3663…d13ebacked Yes | 46c | 23.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 61c | 22.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…ef70backed No | 70c | 20.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 20.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 66c | 20.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked No | 67c | 18.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…a837backed No | 67c | 15.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 75c | 14.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 76°F or higher on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 66-67°F on April 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 68-69°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.