Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Midtjylland vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Draw at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdaa92dd07f11bd7fd002a33838be4c7f6f15a7751f8791dee138940baaef27b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,381 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb917…e6f2backed Yes | 41c | 356$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…34aabacked Yes | 41c | 331$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ac…959cbacked Yes | 41c | 265$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2923…4226backed No | 59c | 229$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb81…d4d3backed No | 59c | 225$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b1…4828backed No | 59c | 194$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 43c | 185.79$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.26 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…6ebfbacked No | 59c | 177$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 57c | 152.74$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.68 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5334…d023backed No | 59c | 127$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 57c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 58c | 29.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7010…394ebacked No | 60c | 20.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.