Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on January 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb3fbdcb181a8b8ae7a8ab1e2a522e948ff8e0b0fc7a61061de1485f9383dde5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 44c | 1,234$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.12 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b8…565dbacked No | 69c | 1,109$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 3c | 600$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 35c | 363.44$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.75 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 7c | 309.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 6c | 255.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9513…1dc6backed Yes | 9c | 230$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 33c | 126.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe58f…3abbbacked Yes | 80c | 125.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad9…6044backed Yes | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 21c | 111.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc9…9229backed Yes | 22c | 105.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 100.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc8…bd8abacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d4…7f3bbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…a6f4backed Yes | 21c | 85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6c…1f67backed No | 79c | 85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 71c | 77.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…c581backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 74c | 56.74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x886b…73d1backed No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2376…d5b4backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x799c…405fbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…c9bcbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…ee8ebacked No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 30c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9593…7411backed No | 71c | 33.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 61cpaid | -46%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 70c | 22.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on January 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 61°F or below on January 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on January 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on January 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on January 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.