Middle East · resolved market
ICC arrest warrant for Netanyahu before inauguration?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcc18688162537a3c54774d4acb8eb273be149b7faac6e086a3232db4cf9bf6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a9…48b9backed No | 4c | 10,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95a3…046ebacked No | 4c | 7,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…0626backed No | 4c | 3,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed No | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +187.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…50aebacked No | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed No | 6c | 2,165$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 14c | 2,152$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,851.59 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0b8bbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…9937backed Yes | 17c | 749.59$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.09 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce64…b8f5backed Yes | 13c | 299.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.98 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 15c | 116.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.99 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58fe…d0e2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x729e…67edbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…b6bbbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 77c | 28.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.