Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Appalachian State vs. Georgia State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde9b0e642a072554cf9bb0f04dd53dd2ab19f48c492833a0a41e1bb7765a038b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Georgia Stateof Appalachian State, Georgia State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf663…2535backed Georgia State | 67c | 78$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebb4…cbecbacked Georgia State | 50c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8428…c581backed Appalachian State | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18e2…38eabacked Georgia State | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e43…028dbacked Appalachian State | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…0608backed Appalachian State | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2500…c5c6backed Appalachian State | 50c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…dcd8backed Appalachian State | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…8ec3backed Georgia State | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…9599backed Appalachian State | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…fb89backed Georgia State | 50c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Appalachian State | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 247 | 59.5%147 W · 100 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…f647backed Appalachian State | 33c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…ede5backed Georgia State | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a76…1c13backed Appalachian State | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Georgia State | 38c | 27.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 283 | 35%99 W · 184 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…8643backed Appalachian State | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc62…2b35backed Georgia State | 63c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a93…cf70backed Georgia State | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.