Stocks · resolved market
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $150 end of April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf23f34e831f69c4e7d3f5f9e5c11c203175ffe44d4513be47edefcf5bed3c91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,682
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x272b…2546backed No | 50c | 261.44$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20f5…7baabacked No | 50c | 259.38$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8635…03a8backed No | 50c | 253.91$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ba…5b8fbacked No | 50c | 250.63$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x564e…ceb4backed No | 39c | 209.51$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…0319backed No | 39c | 207.19$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2a…be13backed No | 39c | 203.14$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0214…13f3backed No | 39c | 203.05$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f20…e082backed No | 39c | 202.44$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc796…35c6backed No | 10c | 190$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f05…b8debacked No | 38c | 185.36$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…86f5backed No | 27c | 185.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…49fabacked No | 38c | 183.28$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e48…598ebacked No | 38c | 182.33$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de0…bcb4backed No | 38c | 181.79$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f6…6e92backed Yes | 62c | 140.6$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe891…70e5backed No | 50c | 90.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eda…598cbacked Yes | 58c | 65.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked Yes | 50c | 57.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +66%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $150 end of April?this page
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $190 end of April?Yes won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $200 end of April?Yes won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 end of April?Yes won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $220 end of April?Yes won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 end of April?Yes won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 end of April?Yes won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $260 end of April?Yes won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $270 end of April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.