Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - Tennisi Stampede Champions Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe054bdde495d61c2f4522d902a228762e9d2438863aea0846872900ba796fb41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rune Eatersof Rune Eaters, Spirit Academy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,308 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Spirit Academy | 16c | 3,302$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.29 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Spirit Academy | 19c | 697.86$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.49 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Spirit Academy | 19c | 574.97$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.98 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ec…6ce1backed Spirit Academy | 10c | 366.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ac…2a18backed Rune Eaters | 80c | 350.13$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.03 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d6…e790backed Spirit Academy | 16c | 338.75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1de6…7b51backed Spirit Academy | 15c | 200.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7f…bb30backed Spirit Academy | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…bbeebacked Spirit Academy | 18c | 149.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Spirit Academy | 32c | 145$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 125 | 68%85 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed Spirit Academy | 20c | 139$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x058e…a2acbacked Rune Eaters | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x639e…a9d4backed Spirit Academy | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Spirit Academy | 20c | 71.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee1…bd81backed Rune Eaters | 74c | 50.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Rune Eaters | 79c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Rune Eaters | 68c | 41.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dab…f602backed Rune Eaters | 69c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - Tennisi Stampede Champions Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 WinnerRune Eaters won
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 WinnerRune Eaters won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.