Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-08-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0f4c6eab4b9f2bd643ced9037b4333aed5d0431e6001d0db164c49179549ae4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 26c | 857.1$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.74 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed No | 31c | 848.62$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.72 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yes | 70c | 821.93$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.58 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 38cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed No | 66c | 481.18$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed No | 65c | 451.17$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 79c | 387$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.41 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 34c | 370.59$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.59 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 29c | 200.56$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…a26ebacked Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 66c | 87.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.07 | 232 | 60.8%141 W · 91 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…8507backed Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc4…a6a9backed Yes | 79c | 25.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 65c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 208 | 60.6%126 W · 82 L | +12.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-08-16?this page
- Will Racing Club de Lens vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw?No won
- Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-08-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.