TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Super Bowl LVIII: Will the Chiefs win by between 3 and 6 points?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,807
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,647

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,807 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 7 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x07b8…3842backed Yes17c3,901$663 inWon+$3,237.821136.4%4 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick17cpaid+38.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xefae…d03cbacked Yes17c588.24$100 inWon+$488.24520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x705f…3fcfbacked Yes17c441.18$75 inWon+$366.181513.3%2 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e1f…55a8backed Yes27c184.96$50 inWon+$135.023100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+194.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2cf8…6e92backed Yes32c152.2$49 inWon+$103.52540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0429…df8fbacked Yes22c136.36$30 inWon+$106.36633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x074b…c2e8backed Yes18c111.11$20 inWon+$91.11333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+85.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.