NHL · resolved market
DEL: Augsburger Panther vs. Koelner Haie
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe275419babf8c59be5c9d9fe7144fa8740cc1910e9c3e917838ebfb50f8773b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Koelner Haieof Augsburger Panther, Koelner Haie
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed Augsburger Panther | 42c | 2,517$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.95 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Koelner Haie | 62c | 1,950$1,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.12 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Augsburger Panther | 38c | 1,842$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Koelner Haie | 57c | 1,210$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.3 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Koelner Haie | 61c | 599$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.61 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…fba6backed Koelner Haie | 57c | 201.75$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.75 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Koelner Haie | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 224 | 43.3%97 W · 127 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Koelner Haie | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +11.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Koelner Haie | 67c | 46.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f4…335fbacked Koelner Haie | 66c | 23.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed Koelner Haie | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x232c…12d7backed Koelner Haie | 64c | 18.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.