Music · resolved market
Will "Stateside + Zara Larsson - PinkPantheress, Zara Larsson" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3fc0d93a9cc08828b8a55fce2000fcc2b36d38cbb44856c98a55c288f197c4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,131 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 3c | 971.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b3…5489backed No | 19c | 708.14$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 18c | 655$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c1…6512backed No | 18c | 642$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 6c | 299.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac7…dc0bbacked Yes | 52c | 288$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e0…a63bbacked No | 48c | 288$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 28c | 265.26$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.58 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4695…9d51backed No | 73c | 189.98$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…728abacked No | 17c | 146.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…c2b6backed Yes | 27c | 95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.81 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Stateside + Zara Larsson - PinkPantheress, Zara Larsson" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?this page
- Will "American Girls - Harry Styles" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
- Will "Man I Need - Olivia Dean" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.