World Politics · resolved market
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win 3rd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe49a3289ac7f0e9a92cf94e198a6957c5892625b3c70f8790075ae227ba32f53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,929
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed Yes | 51c | 2,303$1,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,136.04 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ef…0cd8backed Yes | 67c | 1,867$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed No | 50c | 1,429$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.65 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked No | 42c | 1,426$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.93 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 64c | 1,379$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.09 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed No | 18c | 940.81$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.44 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 47c | 886.02$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.1 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c87…3b59backed Yes | 58c | 865.97$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.97 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3a…94aabacked Yes | 63c | 824.17$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 75c | 808.64$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.62 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31ec…ab04backed No | 17c | 590.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 3c | 490$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 23c | 473.96$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.27 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 71c | 456.61$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.21 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb632…b203backed No | 9c | 447.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed No | 33c | 442.8$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.59 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed No | 9c | 375.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a12…ec08backed Yes | 77c | 300$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 20c | 290.58$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +28.4wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 13c | 277.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4881…39e0backed Yes | 48c | 250.8$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…46c4backed No | 12c | 226.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…fa04backed Yes | 55c | 218.18$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.44 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd844…da79backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Yes | 60c | 185$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27c3…a85dbacked Yes | 53c | 182.9$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…cd54backed Yes | 58c | 173.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.83 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…3039backed Yes | 58c | 172.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d2…d94cbacked No | 12c | 171.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 73c | 167.78$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 59c | 152.2$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.18 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb6…bd1abacked Yes | 59c | 133.58$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90fa…d7f0backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…7f69backed Yes | 46c | 122.39$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.69 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bb…2641backed No | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…3e56backed Yes | 70c | 114.44$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +110%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…70d3backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 101$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad0…cdc2backed Yes | 55c | 99.45$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f9…20babacked Yes | 46c | 97.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…e8e6backed No | 28c | 91.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 37c | 90$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9b…c802backed Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5a…5656backed Yes | 61c | 72.82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c39…f1d9backed Yes | 56c | 59.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ba…6a32backed Yes | 45c | 56.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +56%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 70c | 52.73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 42c | 52.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4082…2440backed No | 42c | 52.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…2260backed No | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7af1…ed61backed Yes | 59c | 44.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x470f…7b77backed Yes | 47c | 42.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f84…0458backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62cb…e2e0backed Yes | 43c | 42.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…6d61backed Yes | 57c | 40.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873f…009abacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d5…bfe8backed Yes | 62c | 33.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd00f…032abacked Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe621…576abacked Yes | 45c | 29.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b9…09d1backed Yes | 55c | 29.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde02…1402backed Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa32b…d02ebacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…ee7bbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win 3rd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?this page
- Will André Ventura win 3rd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will António José Seguro win 3rd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win 3rd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
- Will Luís Marques Mendes win 3rd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.