TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Oeiras 4: Darja Semenistaja vs Anna-Lena Friedsam

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Darja Semenistajaof Darja Semenistaja, Anna-Lena Friedsam
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,599
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,718

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,599 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Anna-Lena Friedsam12c3,018$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.149,03836.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L-196.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Anna-Lena Friedsam23c2,179$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.9758232%186 W · 396 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3df…82fabacked Anna-Lena Friedsam14c809.05$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.0627846%128 W · 150 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Anna-Lena Friedsam20c639.42$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.911,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Anna-Lena Friedsam14c519.33$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.522,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x058e…a2acbacked Anna-Lena Friedsam27c423.39$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9532851.8%170 W · 158 L+1.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Anna-Lena Friedsam18c399.74$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.337,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Anna-Lena Friedsam24c299.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7246932%150 W · 319 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Anna-Lena Friedsam9c282$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.227,96850.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L+92.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Darja Semenistaja76c271.58$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.69,37444.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L-244.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb69…c3e5backed Darja Semenistaja74c196.88$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.191,07655.5%597 W · 479 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x400d…e759backed Darja Semenistaja71c166.97$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.4260856.6%344 W · 264 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f7…c7a2backed Anna-Lena Friedsam29c165.48$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8729955.2%165 W · 134 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Anna-Lena Friedsam17c157.88$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.513,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Darja Semenistaja76c147.5$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.434047.4%161 W · 179 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Anna-Lena Friedsam16c146.15$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.793,79854.9%2,087 W · 1,711 L+111.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Anna-Lena Friedsam10c138.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5222113.6%30 W · 191 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e41…b875backed Darja Semenistaja76c129.68$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1271165.1%463 W · 248 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Anna-Lena Friedsam26c125.81$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7156754.5%309 W · 258 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Darja Semenistaja75c107$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.893,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Anna-Lena Friedsam34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341,24041.2%511 W · 729 L-2.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Darja Semenistaja66c97.96$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3142344.2%187 W · 236 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa41…2239backed Anna-Lena Friedsam26c90.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9315751%80 W · 77 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Anna-Lena Friedsam17c87.31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2256817.4%99 W · 469 L-74.2wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-46.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Anna-Lena Friedsam23c82.29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.138,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02ea…220cbacked Anna-Lena Friedsam24c80.61$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0927935.8%100 W · 179 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Darja Semenistaja74c74.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.51,15148.7%560 W · 591 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Darja Semenistaja75c60$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151,10252.2%575 W · 527 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Darja Semenistaja77c59.13$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.61,44438%548 W · 896 L-46.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed Anna-Lena Friedsam22c54.16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9238741.1%159 W · 228 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd80…5ef4backed Darja Semenistaja76c52.13$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5131463.1%198 W · 116 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9158…ba55backed Anna-Lena Friedsam26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1325745.9%118 W · 139 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Darja Semenistaja76c46.32$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.11,67850.8%852 W · 826 L+30.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6687…b9ddbacked Darja Semenistaja79c31.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5628454.9%156 W · 128 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6442…d68bbacked Anna-Lena Friedsam54c28.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1715146.4%70 W · 81 L-14.1wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-16.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed Darja Semenistaja73c26.48$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0279062.2%491 W · 299 L+25.7wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Darja Semenistaja75c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.252,22945%1,002 W · 1,227 L+3.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Darja Semenistaja46c23.89$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.993048.8%454 W · 476 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd77…ef21backed Darja Semenistaja67c20.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9365264.1%418 W · 234 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xccbd…f1b7backed Darja Semenistaja74c15.85$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.1211040.9%45 W · 65 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.