Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Seattle vs. Abilene Christian
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4bc81282e3122e924cdbb0c6f230c7cc11b69bc25fa6c1768c03558fac21a65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Abilene Christianof Seattle, Abilene Christian
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Abilene Christian | 39c | 184.67$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.65 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Abilene Christian | 40c | 175$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Seattle | 60c | 172.1$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.7 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7713…d89fbacked Abilene Christian | 50c | 139$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b6…04ffbacked Seattle | 50c | 125$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…828abacked Seattle | 57c | 73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…0c40backed Abilene Christian | 50c | 61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 47cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745d…5965backed Abilene Christian | 43c | 58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…5391backed Abilene Christian | 43c | 52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +47%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…d0e8backed Seattle | 57c | 51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb4…44ebbacked Seattle | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x992e…9e93backed Seattle | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d8…1da4backed Abilene Christian | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b5…ceabbacked Seattle | 57c | 49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6530…2a1abacked Abilene Christian | 43c | 44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa166…ea28backed Abilene Christian | 43c | 44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77a1…cbf8backed Abilene Christian | 43c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7791…11e2backed Seattle | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d63…258ebacked Abilene Christian | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f43…9a0fbacked Seattle | 57c | 38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc8…a7eebacked Abilene Christian | 43c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded8…1ca9backed Seattle | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f31…a8c6backed Abilene Christian | 43c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x419c…5a67backed Seattle | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe17f…284bbacked Seattle | 57c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6abe…a966backed Seattle | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22fc…f344backed Abilene Christian | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x856a…37b9backed Seattle | 56c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb50…184abacked Seattle | 57c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe65c…136fbacked Abilene Christian | 44c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 55cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7919…d2e8backed Abilene Christian | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…0f75backed Seattle | 57c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a40…b7f6backed Seattle | 56c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ec…c2b3backed Seattle | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…8165backed Seattle | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x719e…7455backed Seattle | 60c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f8…ee9fbacked Seattle | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef1…5710backed Seattle | 57c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…3516backed Seattle | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2e…74d6backed Seattle | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.