Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
BYU vs. Arizona State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe56918e773b1f7b17b26214f31fd33b1c81fadfbbdf023e25fadf30769511fe1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BYUof BYU, Arizona State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80a5…f9babacked Arizona State | 31c | 653.13$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked BYU | 69c | 519.79$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.22 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed BYU | 70c | 388.63$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.02 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Arizona State | 30c | 145$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 283 | 35%99 W · 184 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8a…e09abacked BYU | 62c | 138$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed BYU | 51c | 81.63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 205 | 48.8%100 W · 105 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Arizona State | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x782a…fde4backed Arizona State | 36c | 47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a56cbacked BYU | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…d415backed Arizona State | 38c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x316e…301dbacked Arizona State | 36c | 44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Arizona State | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed BYU | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f36…d064backed Arizona State | 36c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…386abacked Arizona State | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…acccbacked Arizona State | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ea…c0f1backed Arizona State | 36c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3efb…26ffbacked Arizona State | 36c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef9…d4bfbacked Arizona State | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3573…9ecbbacked BYU | 64c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cb…c3c8backed Arizona State | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c65…3cbabacked BYU | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 58cpaid | +56%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a8…2af1backed BYU | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…c397backed BYU | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7065…64ecbacked BYU | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e01…6846backed BYU | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a8…56f4backed BYU | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.