CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: TDK vs DragonClaw (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #1 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5b9259192de69c8816c3f6ce19e840beff5a5d68ab317dc4f70fd85286f1692
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- DragonClawof TDK, DragonClaw
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82d2…beeabacked DragonClaw | 48c | 2,242$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.62 | 1,011 | 52.3%529 W · 482 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked TDK | 51c | 1,070$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 161 | 46%74 W · 87 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc386…386fbacked TDK | 52c | 709$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.05 | 259 | 44.8%116 W · 143 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked TDK | 51c | 590$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.5 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked TDK | 52c | 313.58$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.06 | 275 | 49.5%136 W · 139 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb441…f757backed DragonClaw | 45c | 243.26$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.88 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed DragonClaw | 30c | 164$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.38 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…48efbacked DragonClaw | 54c | 140$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed DragonClaw | 50c | 130$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 427 | 57.8%247 W · 180 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked TDK | 62c | 116.84$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.31 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6c…620bbacked TDK | 29c | 70.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da6…107abacked DragonClaw | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 129 | 48.8%63 W · 66 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed TDK | 68c | 66.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf186…03a9backed DragonClaw | 40c | 60.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 218 | 50.9%111 W · 107 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83ba…2404backed TDK | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 218 | 56%122 W · 96 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x372f…182abacked TDK | 52c | 52.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa2…6df9backed TDK | 35c | 44.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 162 | 45.7%74 W · 88 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…158fbacked DragonClaw | 25c | 39.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked TDK | 34c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 916 | 48.9%448 W · 468 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c4…9b44backed TDK | 78c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 70cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9e…102abacked DragonClaw | 48c | 30.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 97 | 57.7%56 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb0…daf4backed TDK | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…eee0backed TDK | 75c | 25.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x310e…a062backed TDK | 74c | 18.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed TDK | 75c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 739 | 48.4%358 W · 381 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.