Movies · resolved market
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross more than $108m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe653bdea2546bd25628412d9aeb37b8244cf7b13fd7319c059616d28edbd456e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 78c | 3,739$2,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.46 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…d7c2backed No | 51c | 2,852$1,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,463.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba73…0cfdbacked Yes | 39c | 1,720$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.3 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +9.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 69c | 1,209$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.14 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked No | 69c | 940$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.6 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 62c | 700$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…3963backed No | 63c | 465.24$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.77 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc729…5faabacked Yes | 55c | 421.14$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked No | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb61…a3aabacked Yes | 64c | 297.27$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.25 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08a8…3b8fbacked Yes | 63c | 159.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…e881backed Yes | 60c | 126.92$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…6a12backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a0…310fbacked Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Inside Out 2' gross more than $108m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Inside Out 2' gross between $90-99m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Inside Out 2' gross between $99-108m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Inside Out 2' gross less than $90m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.