Fifa International · resolved market
Will Spain win on 2025-09-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6763e28c10dcb93c52d3384754c8af910ddeb33490005f6a27be66ff403c7ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 8c | 4,029$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.34 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked No | 8c | 4,001$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.09 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed No | 9c | 3,500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 8c | 3,156$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.05 | 292 | 32.9%96 W · 196 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…969bbacked No | 8c | 3,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 9c | 3,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.99 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 7c | 2,471$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.47 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 8c | 2,425$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.01 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed No | 8c | 2,222$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.79 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 470 | 32.8%154 W · 316 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 9c | 1,295$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.53 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4a…048ebacked No | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked No | 7c | 999.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 8c | 599.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 96 | 18.8%18 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 9c | 198$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 144$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Spain win on 2025-09-04?this page
- Will Bulgaria vs. Spain end in a draw?No won
- Will Bulgaria win on 2025-09-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.