Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Cloud Dawning - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe792db68070ff763e0152db233b4d0b4c80d5c8881749139f91e36d0f0a97b0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- GLYPHof GLYPH, Cloud Dawning
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,161 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58f8…dc70backed GLYPH | 80c | 4,094$3,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.87 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed Cloud Dawning | 20c | 1,613$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.5 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Cloud Dawning | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Cloud Dawning | 20c | 730.02$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…9a6ebacked Cloud Dawning | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…8f64backed Cloud Dawning | 18c | 214.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eca…8602backed GLYPH | 80c | 99.81$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 65cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked GLYPH | 80c | 42.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: GLYPH vs Cloud Dawning - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: GLYPH vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group StageGLYPH won
- Dota 2: GLYPH vs Cloud Dawning - Game 2 WinnerGLYPH won
- Game Handicap: GLYPH (-1.5) vs Cloud Dawning (+1.5)GLYPH won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.