CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Outfit 49 vs F5 Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North America Cup #3 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8a37a387c776b8915412faf7da810e73d7c45f747c9b48fb01812674a72135f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- F5 Esportsof Outfit 49, F5 Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed F5 Esports | 48c | 982.66$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.07 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2409…215ebacked Outfit 49 | 44c | 274.26$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.67 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -11.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked F5 Esports | 58c | 228.18$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33a…1fe2backed F5 Esports | 59c | 165.32$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed F5 Esports | 59c | 146.36$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.37 | 780 | 43.7%341 W · 439 L | -21.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb6…ef3abacked Outfit 49 | 56c | 146.04$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.78 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Outfit 49 | 42c | 126.09$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed F5 Esports | 42c | 101.44$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Outfit 49 | 19c | 89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 170 | 34.7%59 W · 111 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Outfit 49 | 25c | 73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed F5 Esports | 59c | 47.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 1,109 | 50.5%560 W · 549 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4048…d4adbacked Outfit 49 | 33c | 46.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -8.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked F5 Esports | 71c | 35.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05b3…ab29backed Outfit 49 | 48c | 25.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed F5 Esports | 52c | 24.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 1,146 | 43.5%499 W · 647 L | -17.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.