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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,665
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,180

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,665 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes5c223.07$12 inLost-$121,56916.3%255 W · 1,314 L+22.4wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No78c185.23$144 inWon+$40.913,13949.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2665…e591backed Yes32c156.15$50 inLost-$5030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes22c145.55$32 inLost-$31.698,33749.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L+271.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes19c107.11$20 inLost-$19.864,50519.6%882 W · 3,623 L+47.2wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes17c91.92$15 inLost-$15.37,2339.3%675 W · 6,558 L-1,116.1wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.8%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes30c81.53$24 inLost-$24.2429835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d65…2d2bbacked Yes27c59.94$16 inLost-$16.213548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33b7…0589backed No69c50.71$35 inWon+$15.728673.3%63 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick74cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No71c42.47$30 inWon+$12.328,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa081…e7a0backed No76c39.31$30 inWon+$9.5539061.5%240 W · 150 L+0.8wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e7d…0434backed Yes31c38.61$12 inLost-$11.9633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-49.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25ed…3e98backed No79c37.97$30 inWon+$7.97742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x558d…b8dcbacked Yes30c35$11 inLost-$10.51942.1%8 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+48.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c9e…8d54backed No78c33$26 inWon+$7.2627669.2%191 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No71c32.29$23 inWon+$9.361,82662.9%1,149 W · 677 L-8.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No63c31$20 inWon+$11.474,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6282…aaabbacked No72c27.78$20 inWon+$7.7842151.8%218 W · 203 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ad3…e651backed No72c27.59$20 inWon+$7.5933351.7%172 W · 161 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8b6…3b38backed No77c25.97$20 inWon+$5.9747175.6%356 W · 115 L+2.1wins0.00per pick75cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No60c24.43$15 inWon+$9.775,19368.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L+70.8wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No74c15.1$11 inWon+$3.9612,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0x32b5…db37backed No78c14.58$11 inWon+$3.2113751.8%71 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No79c13$10 inWon+$2.715,83660%3,502 W · 2,334 L-112.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.