Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
UMKC vs. South Dakota
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb8077de5ba365a79574cc886b1640d59afdaf3d1d9f2e4caff48d7bcd013106
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- South Dakotaof UMKC, South Dakota
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked UMKC | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5632…748dbacked UMKC | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48d8…926dbacked South Dakota | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97c9…0e77backed UMKC | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4c…8f53backed UMKC | 50c | 141$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x534e…a97ebacked South Dakota | 50c | 118$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe435…b00fbacked South Dakota | 58c | 73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…92e9backed UMKC | 42c | 66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed South Dakota | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 247 | 59.5%147 W · 100 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4717…82ecbacked South Dakota | 52c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x826a…98b9backed UMKC | 43c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed UMKC | 49c | 36.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 284 | 45.1%128 W · 156 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c81…a08ebacked UMKC | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe2…3fd9backed South Dakota | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd5…2899backed UMKC | 48c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6861…f8c1backed UMKC | 42c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9e…d74bbacked UMKC | 48c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de8…7826backed UMKC | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x225a…0492backed UMKC | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked UMKC | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…ede5backed South Dakota | 57c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4391…854dbacked South Dakota | 58c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e71…f340backed South Dakota | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7436…b993backed South Dakota | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea2…fc7dbacked South Dakota | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x823f…91b8backed UMKC | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e5…fb34backed UMKC | 54c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…28f8backed UMKC | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23f6…ededbacked South Dakota | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501d…ccd1backed South Dakota | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked South Dakota | 57c | 23.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3c…ddd9backed South Dakota | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d8…4d6fbacked South Dakota | 58c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3529…ba2abacked UMKC | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3055…d24dbacked South Dakota | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…22fabacked South Dakota | 58c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebd7…f960backed South Dakota | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.