Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Wawrinka (-1.5) vs Brancaccio (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec187d072835c352a5c483f2988e563d63975f10752155775e7b822f57f4a510
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Brancaccioof Wawrinka, Brancaccio
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34ae…cdb5backed Brancaccio | 57c | 369.99$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.3 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…408dbacked Wawrinka | 45c | 183.07$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.38 | 467 | 52.5%245 W · 222 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Wawrinka | 44c | 177.9$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 2,804 | 53.7%1,505 W · 1,299 L | +71.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1200…7813backed Brancaccio | 79c | 115.97$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…d0b9backed Brancaccio | 55c | 107$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 709 | 29.1%206 W · 503 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefd1…c520backed Brancaccio | 55c | 103.09$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.39 | 310 | 48.7%151 W · 159 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Wawrinka | 43c | 95.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 909 | 54.6%496 W · 413 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa64c…34f2backed Brancaccio | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 337 | 47.2%159 W · 178 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Wawrinka | 45c | 79.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 7,157 | 39.8%2,848 W · 4,309 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7863…4850backed Brancaccio | 55c | 76.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Brancaccio | 50c | 76.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 7,791 | 47.8%3,722 W · 4,069 L | +39.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…98a7backed Wawrinka | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 172 | 42.4%73 W · 99 L | -17.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Wawrinka | 45c | 69.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 1,522 | 37.8%576 W · 946 L | +26.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae63…9dcdbacked Brancaccio | 55c | 36.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 206 | 51.9%107 W · 99 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x305b…cd21backed Brancaccio | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 557 | 58.9%328 W · 229 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Brancaccio | 54c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Wawrinka (-1.5) vs Brancaccio (+1.5)this page
- Geneva Open: Raul Brancaccio vs Stan WawrinkaStan Wawrinka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.