Olympics · resolved market
Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 400m Freestyle?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed9203d4a596518ca4fceeccaf1a8cd38361626422e3e1b0e527867e7427cce2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc714…3a42backed No | 1c | 12,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…e6a5backed No | 1c | 5,961$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.61 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 2cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…7407backed Yes | 69c | 2,002$1,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.62 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…165cbacked No | 31c | 1,846$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 32c | 855.11$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.42 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…db84backed Yes | 70c | 526.88$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.06 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Yes | 71c | 502.01$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.63 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5e…d2f6backed Yes | 67c | 364.34$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed No | 30c | 249.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 31c | 215.71$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.79 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0617…d760backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 32c | 137.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7d…0ab0backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…d7c2backed Yes | 71c | 57.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x001c…2d38backed Yes | 67c | 36.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…630fbacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd101…90b3backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked Yes | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 400m Freestyle?this page
- Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 400m Freestyle?No won
- Will Summer McIntosh (CAN) win Gold in Women's 400m Freestyle?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.