Token Launches · resolved market
Hyperliquid Up or Down on February 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee048a53c22f652d9d8a9247546551caf0a235a8efd58c0c8f37e3822acaf7dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4af7…42e0backed Down | 66c | 5,000$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,700 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ea…46f2backed Down | 56c | 5,000$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd8…035cbacked Down | 70c | 3,000$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc008…a408backed Down | 69c | 3,000$2,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc5…15f3backed Up | 34c | 2,050$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4569…493fbacked Up | 44c | 1,920$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf52e…de02backed Up | 34c | 1,750$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3746…9f9cbacked Up | 44c | 1,640$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…52a8backed Up | 31c | 1,450$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe79a…80c8backed Up | 44c | 1,440$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9f…09cbbacked Up | 34c | 1,200$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc1…b724backed Up | 30c | 1,110$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…e024backed Up | 30c | 1,030$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa452…c920backed Up | 30c | 860$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 30cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2d…b8c5backed Up | 31c | 850$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d4…db86backed Up | 31c | 700$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.