South American Leagues · resolved market
Caracas FC vs. Club Independiente Petrolero: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeea3394f5f0dd668e15d9ba3c3c5228513356d4883cf6daebe389e7b71579893
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 50c | 12,524$6,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,265.42 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 50c | 11,798$5,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,899 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc418…5e1ebacked Over | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 1,030$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.14 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…b624backed Over | 32c | 999.99$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 955.31$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.78 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9959…c137backed Under | 48c | 313.98$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.83 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Over | 54c | 299.95$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.97 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe187…ab05backed Over | 56c | 251.81$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 44c | 246.37$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.44 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…8b2cbacked Under | 71c | 231.12$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 41c | 195.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a83…5087backed Over | 56c | 167.89$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 56c | 145.47$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.46 | 88 | 87.5%77 W · 11 L | +19.9wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +42%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 80c | 91.75$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 404 | 51.2%207 W · 197 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…1924backed Under | 46c | 51.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Under | 31c | 47.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 55c | 44.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 172 | 61%105 W · 67 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 32c | 40.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 68c | 37.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Under | 68c | 36.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 154 | 57.1%88 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked Over | 56c | 27.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea77…686ebacked Over | 71c | 27.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Over | 74c | 26.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 50c | 26.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…46e5backed Over | 43c | 25.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Under | 50c | 23.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…aea3backed Over | 64c | 20.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Caracas FC vs. Club Independiente Petrolero: O/U 1.5this page
- Caracas FC vs. Club Independiente Petrolero: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Caracas FC vs. Club Independiente Petrolero: O/U 2.5Under won
- Caracas FC vs. Club Independiente Petrolero: O/U 3.5Under won
- Caracas FC vs. Club Independiente Petrolero: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Club Independiente Petrolero (-1.5)Caracas FC won
- Spread: Club Independiente Petrolero (-2.5)Caracas FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.