Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf06ad87e983e7f719feb18cb405814f079b2cee9e5a297095c69b5ed64fecab1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 0c | 20,896$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…b76dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,578$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 73 | 5.5%4 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,220$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 6c | 1,137$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.46 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3d…1e5abacked Yes | 2c | 888.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed Yes | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…8f0bbacked Yes | 29c | 483.68$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.8 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 7c | 404.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 5c | 380$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 12c | 356.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 332.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 267.24$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 257.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 15c | 204.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 26c | 175.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 23c | 158.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 129.55$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 27c | 125.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f1…708cbacked Yes | 43c | 91.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -27%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed No | 66c | 89.9$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 18c | 75.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 66c | 64.82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 62.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 23c | 54.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 53.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 53.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 65c | 46.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 23c | 45.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb80…d0e3backed Yes | 32c | 44.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…8fd5backed Yes | 30c | 43.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…701ebacked No | 63c | 34.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 34.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 24.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…87b0backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 71c | 17.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.