Stocks · resolved market
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $140 end of April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf16fc36c48bd1964a3ed3f00913eb5c891e1a35e2c784bd165a36aacbab46a58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 8c | 297.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed0…5c50backed No | 50c | 204.04$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0a…cb1dbacked No | 50c | 201.23$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa210…4b7cbacked No | 50c | 199.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…0b53backed No | 50c | 194.11$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4281…be3bbacked No | 50c | 191.02$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e31…9df1backed No | 50c | 190.76$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe7…fc32backed No | 50c | 190.47$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bc…68dabacked No | 50c | 189.71$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x428e…78d2backed No | 50c | 189.41$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x305e…61f7backed No | 50c | 189.1$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…e7b8backed No | 50c | 188.18$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2022…4366backed No | 50c | 184.64$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db0…9270backed No | 50c | 182.11$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2f…a2b7backed No | 50c | 178.07$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa26…1f5abacked No | 50c | 177.04$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff8…7073backed Yes | 26c | 67.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $140 end of April?this page
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $0.00 end of April?Yes won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $120 end of April?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $220 end of April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.