Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs. HEROIC
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf209249cde906e36d07990af3de4c1265ac1601884ea77cb8f55df24da9cb383
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, HEROIC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked HEROIC | 20c | 600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x988d…9899backed PARIVISION | 80c | 475$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed HEROIC | 15c | 283.48$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked HEROIC | 17c | 241.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed HEROIC | 18c | 170$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3810…b5e6backed PARIVISION | 77c | 139.27$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed PARIVISION | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac3e…9decbacked PARIVISION | 75c | 113.33$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked HEROIC | 25c | 113.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked HEROIC | 18c | 97.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed PARIVISION | 73c | 57.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1caf…7e6abacked HEROIC | 28c | 50.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b79…b838backed PARIVISION | 77c | 21.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…3e05backed PARIVISION | 79c | 19.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.