MLB · resolved market
Rays vs. Reds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf28898438baeb224de508702aa1bbe8005ea369fb313544f0df790394db1aa15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Redsof Rays, Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Rays | 49c | 42,593$20,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,870.33 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee1…dae8backed Reds | 51c | 42,503$21,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,826.55 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Reds | 51c | 3,029$1,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,484.41 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Rays | 49c | 2,491$1,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.59 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1937backed Reds | 68c | 1,933$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.34 | 384 | 44%169 W · 215 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Rays | 23c | 1,593$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.52 | 549 | 41%225 W · 324 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Reds | 48c | 1,257$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.72 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Rays | 19c | 1,188$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.72 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3451…49a5backed Rays | 39c | 1,146$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Rays | 50c | 1,000$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39de…71f3backed Rays | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…6eaebacked Rays | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 328 | 52.4%172 W · 156 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Reds | 63c | 812.84$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.84 | 280 | 53.9%151 W · 129 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Reds | 78c | 676.53$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.01 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4a…15c7backed Rays | 50c | 487.21$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.01 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Reds | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 630 | 52.7%332 W · 298 L | +13.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Reds | 50c | 355.1$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.55 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Rays | 49c | 308.57$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 717 | 51%366 W · 351 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5930…f3fdbacked Rays | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Rays | 50c | 275$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dde…8a88backed Rays | 21c | 266$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Reds | 75c | 238.03$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.42 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Rays | 52c | 230.77$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,293 | 46.6%603 W · 690 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Rays | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Rays | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Reds | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Reds | 52c | 192.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Rays | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Reds | 50c | 154$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf7…cdb7backed Reds | 77c | 154$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 457 | 49.7%227 W · 230 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Reds | 49c | 148$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.48 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…784bbacked Rays | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Reds | 78c | 136.36$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Reds | 56c | 106.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 534 | 48.9%261 W · 273 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…8507backed Reds | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 255 | 51%130 W · 125 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Reds | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 3,303 | 46.3%1,528 W · 1,775 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Reds | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,408 | 48.8%687 W · 721 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcae7…abfabacked Rays | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…7d3dbacked Rays | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…4119backed Reds | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6563…cbc6backed Rays | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d3…4f95backed Reds | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf235…366dbacked Rays | 50c | 96.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 1,086 | 46.2%502 W · 584 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4208…bb45backed Reds | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Reds | 51c | 83.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 709 | 46.1%327 W · 382 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x448c…4908backed Rays | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8b…e7f4backed Rays | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6817…6e58backed Reds | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Rays | 50c | 73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 201 | 38.8%78 W · 123 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Rays | 50c | 71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Rays | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 249 | 51.8%129 W · 120 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Reds | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 1,302 | 56.7%738 W · 564 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…0b5dbacked Reds | 50c | 65.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3adf…46cfbacked Rays | 52c | 65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c92…4bddbacked Reds | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb4…ab8dbacked Reds | 50c | 56.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9709…b521backed Rays | 52c | 55.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713f…c7bfbacked Reds | 49c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Rays | 52c | 51.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59f…c7cfbacked Rays | 52c | 51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6082…6ce2backed Reds | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 181 | 48.6%88 W · 93 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4a…2553backed Reds | 51c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf24b…2775backed Reds | 78c | 40.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Reds | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 512 | 45.1%231 W · 281 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Rays | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,203 | 48.5%584 W · 619 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…5aa9backed Rays | 51c | 32.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0225…0324backed Reds | 51c | 32.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…7a1dbacked Reds | 49c | 24.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…ca89backed Reds | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 235 | 43.4%102 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb579…f458backed Reds | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 355 | 51.5%183 W · 172 L | +24.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Rays | 50c | 21.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 662 | 50.2%332 W · 330 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…475abacked Rays | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 87 | 66.7%58 W · 29 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Reds | 69c | 17.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.