Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: LiXO eSports vs Yellow Submarine (BO5) - EPL Championship Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf36e19b34e550da4819e2a7a6efbf0b4db24d1ec385af6d11182cbae5bf0d395
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yellow Submarineof LiXO eSports, Yellow Submarine
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x309d…4287backed LiXO eSports | 16c | 353.56$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed LiXO eSports | 23c | 292.48$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.82 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…db93backed Yellow Submarine | 78c | 196.85$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…04a2backed Yellow Submarine | 76c | 130.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked LiXO eSports | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked LiXO eSports | 22c | 72.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…c3c8backed Yellow Submarine | 72c | 66.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed Yellow Submarine | 79c | 37.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…7f76backed Yellow Submarine | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6327…97b2backed Yellow Submarine | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 49 | 83.7%41 W · 8 L | +7.9wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…2269backed Yellow Submarine | 79c | 15.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.