TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Elizabeth Warren vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$48,348
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$64,089

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,348 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes5c4,696$211 inLost-$211.53023.3%7 W · 23 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick16cpaid-45.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37a1…bb65backed No79c603.34$478 inWon+$125.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34d2…696fbacked No79c596.01$471 inWon+$125.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f5d…52e9backed No79c591.29$468 inWon+$123.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbfb…c80abacked No79c589.73$468 inWon+$121.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdab6…4bd4backed No79c580.59$461 inWon+$119.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20f1…b38abacked No79c565.34$449 inWon+$116.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae9f…d611backed No79c562.77$447 inWon+$116.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49b…c664backed No79c559.41$444 inWon+$115.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes3c464$14 inLost-$14.38380%0 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54b9…c874backed No75c330.86$250 inWon+$81.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad6f…bec0backed No75c328.36$245 inWon+$83.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x209a…7b38backed Yes28c296.18$84 inLost-$83.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbac…6d90backed Yes28c295.68$83 inLost-$83.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f90…a2a3backed Yes28c277.5$78 inLost-$78.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3e0…a17cbacked No72c273.29$198 inWon+$75.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c3…4b61backed No72c273.25$198 inWon+$75.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19e5…73c6backed No72c273.22$198 inWon+$75.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7620…0bfbbacked No72c273.15$197 inWon+$75.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb52f…388ebacked No72c272.75$197 inWon+$75.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd519…6bcbbacked No72c272.42$197 inWon+$75.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8e…d7c9backed No72c272.38$197 inWon+$75.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f98…14d1backed No72c272.28$197 inWon+$75.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x450a…670dbacked No72c272.23$197 inWon+$75.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa792…375dbacked No72c272.15$197 inWon+$75.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c67…755bbacked Yes28c271.49$77 inLost-$76.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd197…3008backed Yes28c270.64$76 inLost-$76.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73a9…835abacked Yes28c269$76 inLost-$75.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b12…e00fbacked Yes28c268.97$76 inLost-$75.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c9a…6959backed Yes28c262.7$74 inLost-$74.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4c3…f25abacked Yes28c257.77$73 inLost-$72.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6120…4906backed Yes28c257.25$73 inLost-$72.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc93c…52f1backed No64c155.59$100 inWon+$55.591154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes23c69.88$16 inLost-$15.7413829.7%41 W · 97 L-13.4wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-42.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf5a3…203abacked No75c28.45$21 inWon+$7.15450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+291.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.