Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Samford Bulldogs vs. New Mexico State Aggies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3acfa1f020223de35f4d47134841361bae49f428468ab2ebd5f862948054157
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New Mexico State Aggiesof Samford Bulldogs, New Mexico State Aggies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed New Mexico State Aggies | 80c | 4,183$3,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.59 | 285 | 39.6%113 W · 172 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Samford Bulldogs | 20c | 1,834$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.8 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Samford Bulldogs | 21c | 1,081$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 176 | 50.6%89 W · 87 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Samford Bulldogs | 21c | 919$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.99 | 128 | 53.1%68 W · 60 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Samford Bulldogs | 26c | 800$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed New Mexico State Aggies | 74c | 777$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.02 | 556 | 57.4%319 W · 237 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Samford Bulldogs | 22c | 359$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 658 | 25.7%169 W · 489 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked New Mexico State Aggies | 78c | 313$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.86 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed New Mexico State Aggies | 79c | 193$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.93 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Samford Bulldogs | 21c | 73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 71 | 19.7%14 W · 57 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Samford Bulldogs | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Samford Bulldogs | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked New Mexico State Aggies | 78c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New Mexico State Aggies | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed New Mexico State Aggies | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.