Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf42138d1e46c7651f14c6189eb5fd1964346d3a8dce48764a101e78f64807f42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Long Beach State Beachof Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, Long Beach State Beach
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,230 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 4c | 2,443$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.71 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f0…923bbacked Long Beach State Beach | 10c | 1,032$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 9cpaid | +248.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…dd9fbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 4c | 758.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef0…f14cbacked Long Beach State Beach | 12c | 700$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda8…4058backed Long Beach State Beach | 48c | 345.42$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d0…2b50backed Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 52c | 174.6$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1659…a47bbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 52c | 173.86$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6da…2b66backed Long Beach State Beach | 12c | 160$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.38 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…8f93backed Long Beach State Beach | 12c | 160$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.38 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 52c | 118.87$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.36 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 51c | 47.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Long Beach State Beach | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 485 | 51.1%248 W · 237 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Long Beach State Beach | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Long Beach State Beach | 47c | 31.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Long Beach State Beach | 47c | 29.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 241 | 48.5%117 W · 124 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (-13.5)this page
- Long Beach State Beach vs. Hawaii Rainbow WarriorsLong Beach State Beach won
- Long Beach State Beach vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: O/U 148.5Over won
- Spread: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (-14.5)Long Beach State Beach won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.